2023 Tonys Best Musical Revival Predictions



Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


UPDATED: June 8, 2023

2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Revival of a Musical

Annaleigh Ashford and Josh Groban in “Sweeney Todd” on Broadway.
Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman

Weekly Commentary: In a category with three shows that industry insiders have strong affection for, this one is coming down to a two-show race.

“Parade” is the contender that feels the most like a revelation, showcasing a beloved musical through a new lens. Incorporating revisions that creators have implemented in the years since its 1998 premiere, this “Parade,” with Michael Arden directing Ben Platt and a much-admired Micaela Diamond in the lead roles, impress voters as both moving and timely.

“Sweeney Todd” also wins a lot of love. Many fans consider it peak Sondheim, well-sung by a cast led by Josh Groban and Broadway favorite Annaleigh Ashford. The production also boasts a lush, full orchestra — a rarity on Broadway these days — and an atmospheric staging by director Thomas Kail.

The fall revival of “Into the Woods” was also widely beloved, but polling suggests it doesn’t have the votes of either “Parade” or “Sweeney.” Give the edge to “Parade,” with “Sweeney” hot on its heels.

Gordon Cox’s Picks
Will win: “Parade”
Could win: “Sweeney Todd”
Should win: “Parade”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Bob Fosse’s Dancin’”

Clayton Davis’ Picks
Will win: “Parade”
Could win: “Into the Woods”

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.

The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
    Produced by Seaview, Ambassador Theatre Group Productions, Alex Levy, Kevin Ryan, Eric & Marsi Gardiner, Interscope & Immersive Records, Erica Lynn Schwartz, Creative Partners Productions, Marcia Goldberg, John Gore Organization, Cynthia Stroum, Tom Tuft, Benjamin Simpson, Nathan Vernon, Brian & Nick Ginsberg, Ruth & Stephen Hendel, Roth-Manella Productions, Chutzpah Productions, 42nd.club, Ahava 72 Productions, The Andryc Brothers, The Array, At Rise Creative, Caiola Jenen Productions, Coles Achilles, deRoy Brunish Productions, Fakston Productions, Federman Batchelder, Level Forward, Pencil Factory Productions, Renard Lynch, Robin Merrie, Rubin Stuckelman, Runyonland Sussman, Kristin Caskey, Mike Isaacson, Bee Carrozzini and New York City Center (Michael S. Rosenberg, President & CEO); Presenting the production by New York City Center (Michael S. Rosenberg, President & CEO)
  2. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)
    Produced by Jeffrey Seller, Bob Boyett, Diana DiMenna & Plate Spinner Productions/Aaron Glick, Eastern Standard Time, Roy Furman, Thomas Kail, Jim Kierstead/Benjamin Leon IV, TourDForce Theatrical, Maggie Brohn and Andy Jones
  3. Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)
    Produced by Jujamcyn Theaters (Jordan Roth: President; Rocco Landesman: President Emeritus; Paul Libin: Executive Vice President Emeritus; Jack Viertel: Senior Vice President Emeritus), Jordan Roth, New York City Center (Arlene Shuler, President & CEO, Mark Litvin, Managing Director), Daryl Roth, Hunter Arnold, Concord Theatricals, Nicole Eisenberg, Jessica R. Jenen, Michael Cassel Group, Kevin Ryan, ShowTown Productions and Armstrong, Gold & Ross; Presenting the production by New York City Center Encores! (Lear deBessonet: Artistic Director; Rob Berman: Music Director; Clint Ramos: Producing Creative Director; Jenny Gersten: Producer of Musical Theater)
  4. Lerner & Loew’s Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)
    Produced by Lincoln Center Theater (André Bishop: Producing Artistic Director; Adam Siegel: Managing Director; Naomi Grabel, Executive Director of Development and Planning); Produced in association with Trafalgar Entertainment and The Dodgers; Consulting Producer: Cambra Overend; Mindich Chair Musical Theater Associate Producer: Ira Weitzman

All Eligible Shows (Unranked)

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About the Tony Awards

The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.


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