2024 Oscars Best Picture Predictions



Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

(L-R): Jodie Comer as Kathy, Director Jeff Nichols, and Austin Butler as Benny on the set of 20th Century Studios’ THE BIKERIDERS. Photo by Kyle Kaplan. © 2023 20th Century Studios. All Rights Reserved.
Kyle Kaplan

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 5, 2023): Searchlight Pictures, the indie studio that has won five best picture prizes in the last 15 years – “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), “12 Years a Slave” (2013), “Birdman” (2014), “The Shape of Water” (2017) and “Nomadland” (2020) – has the goods to add a sixth with Yorgos Lanthimos’ sci-fi comedy “Poor Things.”

“Sex is back,” Julie Huntsinger, executive director of the Telluride Film Festival, told a packed house of festivalgoers as they took in the newest effort from Lanthimos. It was the only movie I saw in Colorado that feels like a potential winner.

If nominated for best picture and actress, star and producer Emma Stone would be another woman in the race this year seeking double recognition. Others include Natalie Portman (“May December”) and Margot Robbie (“Barbie”). Only one woman has been nominated for both categories in the same year, Frances McDormand for “Nomadland” (2020), who won both.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

Aside from “Poor Things,” other films were able to have a moment out of Telluride. Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” and Jeff Nichols’ “The Bikeriders” feel like movies the conventional Hollywood establishment could easily get behind.

A24’s “The Zone of Interest,” Neon’s “Anatomy of a Fall” and IFC/Sapan Studios’ “The Taste of Things” are the three non-English language titles trying to prove they can be more than a nom for best international feature.

Feel-good stories like Netflix’s “Rustin” could go far with the help of its leading performer Colman Domingo.

There are some movies that could face some hurdles for various reasons. Amazon MGM’s “Saltburn” will depend heavily on a passionate vote for Emerald Fennell and the technical categories while Netflix’s “Nyad” will have to focus on ensuring its stars Annette Bening and Jodie Foster can remain in the discussion with an onslaught of competitors.

Always worth mentioning, documentaries tend to have critical acclaim but haven’t been able to muster a nom in the top category since the 2009 expansion of the category. Matthew Heineman’s “American Symphony” is more than worthy of becoming the first, if it can pick up distribution, and be released this year with a focused awards campaign.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed producer credits are not final, and are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
  2. Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone
  3. Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
    Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
  4. Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
    David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner
  5. The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
    Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
  6. Past Lives” (A24)
    David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon
  7. The Zone of Interest” (A24)
    Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson
  8. Maestro” (Netflix)
    Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
  9. Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Ben Affleck, Madison Ainley, Jason Michael Berman, Matt Damon, David Ellison, Peter Guber, Jeff Robinov, Jesse Sisgold, Jon Weinbach
  10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
    Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg

Next in Line

  1. Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie
  2. Ferrari” (Neon)
    Monika Bacardi, Thomas Hayslip, Andrea Iervolino, John Lesher, Michael Mann, Laura Rister, Thorsten Schumacher, Lars Sylvest, P.J. van Sandwijk, Gareth West
  3. The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
    Sarah Green, Brian Kavanaugh-Jones, Arnon Milchan
  4. The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
    Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey
  5. May December” (Netflix)
    Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon
  6. Rustin” (Netflix)
    Bruce Cohen, Tonia Davis
  7. All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Sarah Harvey
  8. Origin” (Neon)
    Ava DuVerny, Paul Garnes
  9. Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
    Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
  10. Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
    Alan Greisman, Hannah Leader, Rick Nicita, Robert Stillman, Meg Thomson

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  2. American Fiction” (MGM)
  3. The Iron Claw” (A24)
  4. Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
  5. Fair Play” (Netflix)
  6. BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
  7. The Killer” (Netflix)
  8. The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
  9. Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
  10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)

Also In Contention

  1. Nyad” (Netflix)
  2. Priscilla” (A24)
  3. The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
  4. Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
  5. She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)
  6. Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
  7. A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  8. The Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  9. The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
  10. American Symphony” (No U.S. Distribution)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories


About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.


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