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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actress
Warner Bros.
Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 8, 2024): The best supporting actress category can be described in one word: messy.
It’s not “messy” with the quality of talent in the race because there are more than a dozen powerhouse performers vying for recognition. It’s because, except for Golden Globe winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph for “The Holdovers,” no one else feels “certain” for a slot.
Before people scream “Emily Blunt!” into their computer or phone screen as they read this, I, too feel good about our British star finally snagging her long overdue nomination for “Oppenheimer.” But we’ve been here before with Blunt (too many times in fact). Looking “assured” a nom for her turns in “A Quiet Place,” “Mary Poppins Returns” and “The Devil Wears Prada,” the rug always seems to be pulled out from under us on nomination morning. Nonetheless, we’re staying the course and hoping for her name to be called.
Beyond that, the number of women being predicted by pundits as the sole nominees for their respective films is raising some red flags. It’s well-known that many Academy members don’t watch many movies. That often explains why you see films garnering multiple nominations.
It’s not unprecedented for the majority of an acting lineup to encompass these lone wolves — in actor, it last occurred in 2007 (Ryan Gosling, Peter O’Toole, and eventual winner Forest Whitaker), and in actress, it was in 2014 (winner Julianne Moore, Marion Cotillard and Rosamund Pike). However, in supporting actress, you have to go back to the 1987 lineup that included Norma Aleandro (“Gaby: A True Story”), Anne Ramsey (“Throw Momma from the Train”) and Anne Sothern (“The Whales of August”). It’s never happened since the creation of the best supporting actor category in 1938.
This echoes two safe options to follow when predicting a lineup: be limited in the number of sole nominated performances or predict additional nominations for their movie elsewhere.
Based on what’s known so far, the list of lone possibilities includes Danielle Brooks or Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”), Jodie Foster (“Nyad”), Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”) and Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”). That doesn’t imply the films won’t pull in additional noms elsewhere; only there’s a viable outcome where they are.
The SAG Awards nominations that will be announced on Wednesday, will clear some of these questions up.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
- Sandra Hüller — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- Rachel McAdams — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Penélope Cruz — “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Erika Alexander — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **
- Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studios)
- Viola Davis — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
- Leslie Uggams — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Vanessa Kirby — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
Also In Contention
- Niecy Nash-Betts — “Origin” (Neon)
- Scarlett Johansson — “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Issa Rae — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Florence Pugh — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Anne Hathaway — “Eileen” (Neon)
- Tilda Swinton — “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Halle Bailey — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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