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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Andrew Scott and Paul Mescal in ALL OF US STRANGERS. Photo by Parisa Taghizadeh, Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures. © 2023 20th Century Studios All Rights Reserved.
Parisa Taghizadeh
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 29, 2023): Variety has already reported the questions surrounding the screenplay eligibility/submissions for “Barbie,” which Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach penned. Depending on that outcome (and we are currently predicting it to go the original screenplay route), that could open things up as a battle between the two early best picture frontrunners ensues — “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Oppenheimer.” Noteworthy, “Barbie” could be a possible winner in either screenplay race.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The fall festivals are about to gear up and offer interesting options such as “Poor Things” by Oscar nominee Tony McNamara (“The Favourite”) and “The Killer” by Andrew Kevin Walker.
Andrew Haigh’s “All of Us Strangers” also has a strong early buzz that could help the film pop at any of its stops along the way.
And with “Dune Part Two” moving out of the awards race, a slot could open up for festival premieres like Sony’s “Dumb Money” or 20th Century Studios’ “The Bikeriders.”
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
- Listed writer credits are not final. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)
- “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan (based on the book by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
- “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Jonathan Glazer (based on “The Zone of Interest” by Martin Amis)
- “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)
- “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum (based on the book by Ben Mezrich)
Next in Line
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach (based on “Barbie” by Mattel) **
- “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures) — Andrew Haigh (based on the book by Taichi Yamada)
- “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) — Jeff Nichols (based on “The Bikeriders” by Danny Lyon)
- “The Killer” (Netflix) — Andrew Kevin Walker (based on graphic novel by Alexis Nolent, Luc Jacamon)
- “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Mark St. Germain (based on the play by Germain) **
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller (based on the book by Jacquie McNish, Sean Silcoff)
- “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) — Tran Anh Hung (based on the novel by Marcel Rouffe)
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham (based on the character created by Marvel Comics)
- “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Marcus Gardley (based on the novel by Alice Walker and the musical by Brenda Russell, Allee Willis, Stephen Bray, Marsha Norman)
- “Ferrari” (Neon) — Troy Kennedy Martin (based on the novel by Brock Yates)
- “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Kelly Fremon Craig (based on the novel by Judy Blume)
- “Eileen” (Neon) — Ottessa Moshfegh, Luke Goebel (based on the novel by Moshfegh)
- “How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon) — Ariela Barer, Jordan Sjol, Daniel Goldhaber (based on the novel by Andreas Malm)
- “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) — Sarah Conradt (based on the novels “Mothers’ Instincts” by Giordano Gederlini and Olivier Masset-Depasse and “Behind the Hatred” by Barbara Abel)
- “The Burial” (Amazon Studios) — Doug Wright, Maggie Betts (based on the book by Jonathan Harr)
Also In Contention
- “Nyad” (Netflix) — Julia Cox (based on “Find a Way” by Diana Nyad)
- “Priscilla” (A24) — Sofia Coppola (based on the book by Priscilla Presley, Sandra Harmon)
- “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) — Taika Waititi, Iain Morris (based on the book by Mike Brett, Steve Jamison)
- “American Fiction” (MGM) — Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett)
- “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Mark L. Smith (based on the book by Daniel James Brown)
- “Foe” (Amazon Studios) — Iain Reid, Garth Davis (based on the book by Reid)
- “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — Nia DaCosta, Megan McDonnell, Elissa Karasik (based on the characters by Marvel Comics)
- “Creed III” (MGM) — Ryan Coogler, Keenan Coogler, Zach Baylin (based on characters by Sylvester Stallone)
- “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix) — Sam Esmail (based on the novel by Rumaan Alam)
- “Origin” (No U.S. Distribution) — Ava DuVernay (based on the book by Isabel Wilkerson)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios) — Michael Green
- “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) — Jeff Nichols
- “Priscilla” (A24) — Sofia Coppola
- “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24) — Jesse Eisenberg
- “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Jonathan Glazer
- “The Burial” (Amazon Studios) — Doug Wright, Maggie Betts
- “Foe” (Amazon Studios) — Iain Reid, Garth Davis
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
- “Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street) — Peter Flannery
- “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — Jonathan Aibel, Glenn Berger, Elizabeth Tippet
- “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features) — Nia Vardalos
- “BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller
- “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) — Tran Anh Hung
- “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination) — Matthew Fogel
- “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Kelly Fremon Craig
- “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate) — Michael Lesslie, Michael Arndt
- “John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate) — Shay Hatten, Michael Finch
- “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios) — Jeff Loveness
- “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) — James Gunn
- “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — Nia DaCosta, Megan McDonnell, Elissa Karasik
- “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Mark L. Smith
- “Creed III” (MGM) — Ryan Coogler, Keenan Coogler, Zach Baylin
- “American Fiction” (MGM) — Cord Jefferson
- “Eileen” (Neon) — Ottessa Moshfegh, Luke Goebel
- “How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon) — Ariela Barer, Jordan Sjol, Daniel Goldhaber
- “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) — Sarah Conradt
- “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix) — Karey Kirkpatrick, John O’Farrell, Rachel Tunnard
- “The Killer” (Netflix) — Andrew Kevin Walker
- “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix) — Sam Esmail
- “Nimona” (Netflix) — Robert L. Baird, Lloyd Taylor
- “Nyad” (Netflix) — Julia Cox
- “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix) — Wells Tower
- “Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — J. A. Bayona, Bernat Vilaplana, Jaime Marques, Nicolás Casariego
- “Origin” (No U.S. Distribution) — Ava DuVernay **
- “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) — Liz Hannah, John Collee, Marion Hume **
- “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures) — Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Jeff Rowe, Dan Hernandez, Benji Samit, Brendon O’Brien
- “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) — Taika Waititi **
- “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) — Marielle Heller **
- “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara
- “Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures) — Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt
- “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum
- “The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures) — Richard Wenk
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham
- “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Mark St. Germain
- “Ferrari” (Neon) — Troy Kennedy Martin
- “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
- “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.) — Gareth Dunnet-Alcocer
- “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Marcus Gardley
- “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — Simon Farnaby, Paul King
- “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — David Magee
2022 category winner: “Women Talking” (MGM) — Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews)
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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